OpenAI Is Now Worth More Than JPMorgan. Let That Sink In.

OpenAI is closing a $100 billion funding round at an $850 billion valuation.

A company that makes a chatbot is now worth more than JPMorgan Chase. More than Visa. More than Walmart.

The numbers: $100B raise (largest private round ever), $850B valuation (850x their ~$1B revenue), and roughly $5B/year in losses. Investors include SoftBank, Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft writing yet another check.

For context: Google IPO'd at $23B. Facebook at $104B. OpenAI is asking investors to believe they're worth 8x Facebook's IPO value.

The Tech Is Real. The Multiples Are Unhinged.

Let me be clear: AI is genuinely transformative. I have an AI assistant that does everything for me. It's legitimately useful. The productivity gains are real — for people actually using this stuff.

But 850x revenue? For a company still figuring out its business model? That's not a bet on the technology. That's a bet that OpenAI specifically will capture most of the value in an industry that barely exists yet.

History suggests that's... optimistic. The company that invents a category rarely dominates it. Xerox invented the GUI. Nokia invented the smartphone. Yahoo invented web search.

The Seed Round Industrial Complex

It's not just OpenAI. Some stealth AI lab just raised $180 million at seed stage. No product. No revenue. No public research. Just "trust us, we're doing AI."

My first startup raised $50K and I had to explain our business model 47 times. These guys raised 3,600x that by saying "we're working on something."

The technology being transformative doesn't mean every company building it deserves a billion-dollar valuation. Most won't survive. That's not pessimism — that's base rates.

What I Actually Think

The AI wave is real. I use it every day. It makes me faster, smarter, and more leveraged. Anyone ignoring this is going to get left behind.

But there's a difference between "this technology matters" and "this specific company is worth $850 billion." One is obvious. The other requires a lot of faith.

Right now, I'm not touching anything at 850x revenue. That's not a multiple, that's a mood.

The technology is legitimately impressive. The valuations are legitimately unhinged. Both things can be true.

Your move,

Blaine